Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, with his unruly hair, rumpled suit, gravelly voice and down-to-earth "dignity of work" appeal, has long had one of Ohio’s strongest political brands. But a Republican senator who learned a lot about brands and competition while working at Cincinnati’s Procter & Gamble Co. thinks his third-term colleague is vulnerable in this fall’s election against Republican Bernie Moreno.
"Ohio is Ground Zero for one of the biggest Senate races in the nation," said Steve Daines, a second-term senator who’s chairing the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. Another is Daines’ home state of Montana, where Republicans hope to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester as they try to wrest Senate control from the Democrats needing a net gain of two seats (or one, if there is a Republican vice president to break tie votes). The two races are similar with Democratic incumbents running against red tides in their states.
While Brown has been winning elections since the early 1970s, Daines pointed out that he’s never had to run with Donald Trump on the same ballot. Trump handily carried Ohio in 2016 and 2020 and seems likely to again this year.
"We’re looking at numbers: (President Joe) Biden’s approvals in Ohio are just in the tank. He’s now in the high 30s," Daines said in a recent phone interview. "I’m pretty sure that the good folks there in Ohio have a big problem with a lot of Joe Biden’s policies, and they’re ready for a new president. And they want to make sure they elect a U.S. senator who will work with President Trump."
Daines, now 61, came to Ohio straight out of Montana State University, where he earned a chemical engineering degree, to join P&G, maker of such leading consumer brands as Tide detergent, Crest toothpaste and Pampers diapers. He worked for P&Gfor 13 years, the last six in management in China as P&G expanded its competition with Chinese and other international brands there. Among other young P&G executives he worked with there was Jon Moeller, now the company’s CEO, and he reported to A.G. Lafley, who headed Asian operations from Japan and later had a highly successful tenure as P&G CEO.
"What P&G taught me was the power of focus," said Daines. "The importance of delivering results; focusing on getting results and on strategy. P&G is a great company that develops strategic thinking. And the strategic thinking skills that I was taught by some of my mentors have been invaluable to me, certainly in my job, and now as a U.S. senator, and specifically in chairing the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It’s important that we have more strategic thinking in Washington and a focus on results."
Democrats only have one issue to talk about − abortion
The Ohio GOP nominee is a Colombia-born businessman running in his first general election, and Democrats have been raising questions about Moreno’s credibility and emphasizing his past expressions of hardline opposition to abortion in a state where voters decisively supported abortion access rights in 2023, making them part of the state constitution.
"So they only have one thing they can try to talk about − abortion," Daines said.
Daines said Moreno has "the right position," which Daines says includes allowing exceptions for rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother and to "remember that we are representing individual states." Moreno has voiced support for setting federal abortion restrictions at 15 weeks and in the past described himself as "absolute pro-life" with no exceptions.
More:Abortion politics: Can Ohio Democrats seize momentum from 2023 win or will Trump trump all?
Daines thinks Trump’s support in Ohio will give Moreno a big boost as Republicans draw attention to Brown’s alignment with Biden. Trump will help bring out working-class Ohioans who oppose Biden’s policies on such issues as inflation, the border and energy, he said.
Brown has shown ability to attract both independents and cross-over votes, and some current campaign messaging for him highlights willingness to work across the aisle. One TV commercial states that Brown "voted yes with Republicans" on an immigration bill and another features a man saying Brown "wrote a bill that Donald Trump signed to crack down on drugs at the border."
Daines, though, said the last two presidential elections, during the Trump era, have shown a trend nationally against ticket-splitting on Senate races. Republican Sen. Susan Collins was the lone exception in 69 races by winning re-election in Maine in 2020 while Biden carried her state. Trump has twice carried Ohio by 8 percentage points and Montana by double-digit margins.
"That’s why I think Democrats are going to have some challenges in states like Ohio and Montana to keep these Senate seats," he said.
Senate race a battle of big brands
He expects Trump to actively support Moreno.
"I don’t control his schedule, but I think there’s pretty good odds that President Trump will make some swings through Ohio … it’s not lost on President Trump that the most important thing he needs after he’s elected in November is a Republican Senate because the Senate, unlike the House, is in charge of personnel matters."
Daines said Trump will want a Senate that will confirm his choices for his Cabinet and other critical administration positions. "He needs Bernie Moreno to help him put his Cabinet in place, not to mention his policies after that."
So the Ohio Senate race might come down to a battle of big brands: Trump’s against Brown’s. And then, to paraphrase A.G. Lafley’s P&G slogan about consumers, "The voter is boss."
Extra Point
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, elected in 2022 to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, continues to show up on "short list" speculation about Trump’s eventual choice as a running mate. Vance’s standard answer to questions about the possibility has been that he hasn’t discussed it with Trump but would certainly be interested if he did ask.
Vance, 39, was an early supporter of Moreno in the Republican primary and helped persuade Trump to back him late in the campaign. Trump’s support helped Vance to victory in 2022.
Meanwhile, Portman is now on the board of directors of that big Cincinnati-based consumer products company. And in another connection, Daines’ last CEO while working for P&G was John Pepper, whose son David, a former city council member and Hamilton County commissioner, is a very active Democratic voice in Cincinnati after chairing the Ohio Democratic Party.
Dan Sewell is a regular Opinion contributor. Contact: dsewellrojos@gmail.com
